Gaming World Forums
General Category => General Talk => Topic started by: ase on June 13, 2009, 07:58:11 pm
-
holy shit. i know i am not the only one who is paying attention to this stuff. Incumbent president Ahmadinejad was officially announced as the winner of the election that was held there yesterday. Protesters, especially supporters of opponent Mousavi, have started riots in the streets and lit shit on fire and all of that great stuff that comes with riots. Here are some links for you:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8098896.stm
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/13/iran.election/index.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-election-results-ahm_0_n_215169.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
Iran banned all independent agencies from monitoring voting in the country, cell phone service has been suspiciously down for a few days, Mousavi-supporting websites have been blocked, bbc.co.uk was blocked, and Ahmadinejad wins with 62.6% of the vote to Mousavi's 33.75: a much much larger gap than expected
-
brb i'm just watching this revolution unfold
-
I've not been following this as much as I should have. Quick question, who is counting the ballots?
-
I was in France so I missed most of this (edit: "this" being the run-up to the elections). I watch Mosaic from Link TV almost every day and was looking forward to seeing how the elections would develop. Although I didn't expect Ahmadinejad to lose, this is really unexpected.
Right now I'm just reading up on things, but it's clear that this is a huge moment for Iran. The people are actually standing up and protesting the result. The government warned that there would be vast implications for protesters, so I don't expect it to actually last for very long, but who knows?
-
I've not been following this as much as I should have. Quick question, who is counting the ballots?
The Interior Ministry - a government office
-
oh man I heard the elections were coming up but I didn't think anything this interesting would happen. Kudos to the protesters but if they start anything short of a civil war I don't see much coming from this.
-
A guy I used to work with was a very recent immigrant from Iran and he said pretty much all of the young people there hate Ahmadinejad! I don't know if that was true, but according to him the last time the country got close to revolt the UK helped the Iranian government to keep order. Somehow. He didn't really explain it. He hated the UK though, with a passion!
Iran has been an internal powder keg for years; the population is hugely divided and most young people view Ahmadinejad's crazy West-bashing as just that (crazy). Students launch protests all the time (according to this guy) and want nothing more than to see genuine Democratic elections happen.
It's not surprising that the incumbent in a tightly run semi-autocratic country wins by a landslide.
The last election in Georgia had 90% of registered voters reported by 10am. Think about that for a second. What was the turnout in the last US election? This kind of corruption is pretty common in many fledgling democracies (especially in Central Asia) and some states are better at making it seem more believable than others.
Still, hopefully the country collapses before the much-vaunted US-Iran war begins!
-
if it came down to it though think about this:
we've got a country thats split with a good majority of the populace pro-western or maybe not pro-western but progressive and opposing to the anti-western bullshit so I don't see them forming any kind of resistance to an early US occupation under the current administration as long as we don't do anything too stupid. And then we've got Iran's administration and Iranian security forces. I think if the US actually decided to go to war with Iran and the progressives were pissed off enough at Ahmadinejad it would be over pretty quick.
But then if Israel were to get involved then shit would most def get messy even with the progressives. Right? And Israel would probably try to get involved because they hate Iran and they like killing shit.
-
yes, they will greet us with flowers and candy
-
we've got a country thats split with a good majority of the populace pro-western or maybe not pro-western but progressive and opposing to the anti-western bullshit so I don't see them forming any kind of resistance to an early US occupation under the current administration as long as we don't do anything too stupid. And then we've got Iran's administration and Iranian security forces. I think if the US actually decided to go to war with Iran and the progressives were pissed off enough at Ahmadinejad it would be over pretty quick.
Yeah this is what the Americans thought when they invaded Canada! Oh they'll just surrender they like us, right?
The fact is that when one country marches into another one the country being marched into immediately galvanizes against the invader. Generally speaking, the population that supports the invader generally doesn't do dick all except cheer and wave miniature American flags, whereas on the other side you have an equal number of people shooting at you. With guns. And rockets.
People thought this about Burma, too. Everyone hates the junta there, but if the US (or any other nation) invaded they'd all leap up to defend whatever bullshit political leader they have because he's their bullshit political leader and even if they plan on ousting him first chance they get, at least they'll do it on their own terms and not thanks to some foreigners. Nationalism pretty much dictates that unless one foreign power controls your government you don't want to see any other foreign governments meddling directly, and the best way to spark nationalism is to invade a country.
To summarize: DO NOT INVADE COUNTRIES THEY NEVER WANT YOU TO
-
yeah I thought about that too and I spoke to a dude from Yemen that told me muslims are especially sensitive to invading forces no matter what and thats a big part of the reason the US had so much trouble over there or any invading forces really.
-
I dont see the riot helping things at all but who knows maybe a re-count will be held even though im sure the results will be exactly the same.
-
Khamenei has ordered a vote rigging probe, pretty wild since he's stated twice so far that Mahmoud is the rightful president and the election was fair and should be recognized as legitimate. Of course, the probe will be conducted by officials within the "elected" government who will no doubt find that no irregularities took place. I can't imagine this is more than an effort to placate protestors!
-
good work khamenei. now dismantle the autocracy and home in time for tea
-
dont believe anything you hear in the news about what is going on outside of tehran
there are literally no western reporters anywhere else in the country and they have been kicking the rest out/confiscating cameras and other recording equipment in the last two days
in other words, big big shit is going to go down in the next two weeks. especially if they continue to jail reformist leaders and beat the shit out of students
also for anyone who is still concerned whether or not this election was rigged... consider this: mousavi did not win his hometown (tabriz) or by any margin within people of his own ethnic group (azeris). this would be like obama not getting the black vote. it just doest happen. And also there is the issue of Karroubi only getting .8% of the vote, and considering he consitently polled at around the 10% range for the entirety of the campaign, and also given his popularity among southern ethnic groups, especially the lurs, it just smacks of millions of votes either not being counted or just thrown away
so yeah its gonna be interesting. either way, its the worst unrest since the student protests in 1998 and possibly since the revolution. there was a demonstration today at azadi square that probably half a million people attended. the protests are starting to really spread and gain strength. if ahmadinejad is declared the winner by the guardian council, he will likely continue jailing reformists and possibly even attempt to jail mousavi (which would be hard to do for a lot of reasons, but still not out of the question).
I'm not going to make any firm declarations, but this is the shit major revolts and revolutions are made out of
-
welcome back
put some of those skills to good use and start translating farsi twitter feeds for us please
-
im not back I was checking up on steel and saw this topic
the twitter feeds are interesting, and also, most of them are in english btw
more interesting would be news articles from iranian newspapers and gooya.com but all of them are either not currently functioning or are completely sensationalized
so far only one protestor has been shot btw, but if the large demonstrations turn violent (which they have the capability to do so) and riot police start employing more than batons to contain the outbursts shit is going to get really fuckin ugly. once you start makin martyrs in iran you're opening up a pandoras box of processual cycles where huge mourning processions 40 days after the deaths of protestors will start and that will lead to more violence surely because the state will not want those going on, and then every time a number of people are killed 40 days later there will be a big demonstration in the streets and it just keeps happening over and over again until martial law is imposed basically. however I'm starting to sound rather sensational myself
btw the election was on friday. theres a considerable news lag coming from iran normally, but it is so fucking bad right now that like bbc was having trouble getting a radio signal through to interview some journalists and actually the most reliable big distribution news group has been al-jazeera lol
-
more than one person has been shot i think!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
-
there was a pretty good segment on democracy now today about the election if anyone wants to check it out.
-
more than one person has been shot i think!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
yeah like I said, there is a considerable time lag in the reporting.
news reports are coming in right now of a big clash between riot police and demonstrators that left at least 7 and as many as 20 dead at azadi square so yeah its lookin like its escalating
I'll take a look on gooya and see what the iranian press are currently saying
-
well like literally right now there is a major clash going on. the news is just breaking so I'll be following that but basically the headline is just MORE DEMONSTRATIONS MORE BLOOD etc etc
-
it would be nice to see the people flex a lil muscle and kick those ayatollahs out. unfortunately they're not really angry at the ayatollahs, which is kind of dissapointing. the candidate they're supporting pretty much blows anyway but still it's nice seeing the regular people actually rise up.
-
I dont think the ayatollahs are really the problem in iran other than khameini to be honest. basically all the ones whose opinions matter at all are either reformist or moderate cause they are good shiia muslims obviously and wouldnt be ayatollahs if they werent pious ass motherfuckers and all about social justice and whatnot. the iranian political system is really fucked up, and I'm not going to pretend to know all the nasty details cause I'm not in political science or history, but I do know that there will always be conflicts between secular and religious authority in iran as there always has been. the thing people kinda forget about is that the iranian populace as a whole is still pretty traditional and conservative. obviously, now that is changing given that a staggering percentage of the population is under the age of 30, it might be 40% or more. Iranian politics as of late has almost been boiling down to being a intergenerational conflict at its most simple level, and given the current demographic makeup of the country, it will continue to be a major issue I think. the youth have very different values and desires than the older generation, and its looking like the younger generations have the power to make their voices heard, which is encouraging
that said
honestly anything is better than ahmadinejad and his pack of corrupt reactionaries, so I'm up for a regime change that would even bring a conservative to power because yeah there is no one as moronic and stubborn and in general a jackass who is a major player in iranian politics than ahmadinejad right now
but yeah if the people were to actually rise up against the ayatollahs as opposed to the actions of a secular leader that would be real fuckin interesting because the ayatollahs basically only exist to interpret the word of god for the body of shiia until the return of the hidden imam. so yeah the implications of something such as that would deal a huge blow to the foundation of what it means to be iranian and that would signal a HUUUUUGE shift in the discourse of just about everything that goes on in that country. for me 12er shiia identity and iranianness are kinda hard to disentangle, so if the people of iran were to bring the shiia exegetic apparatus down by force that would ripple throughout iranian consciousness and thought and man I dont even know what would happen but it would be crrrrraaaaaazy. I promise, you have never seen or heard of anything like what that would be like lol.
-
man do they not realize that the root of all of their problems comes from the fact that they blend church and state so thickly?
I think I get what you're saying but at the same time since the ayatollah is the word of god, that would be like rising up against god or god's word. If these people are so embedded into their faith and they have a religious leader set as a state head mucking shit up in the name of god holy shit that is a shitty situation.
-
well its more nuanced than that. an ayatollah doesnt hand down the word of god, he is a really well respected mujtahid basically, which means that he interprets the rules laid down in the Qur'an and various other religious texts to provide spiritual guidance for the people of his time.
so overthrowing the ayatollahs would not so much be overthrowing the word of god as much as it would be just opening ijtihad (islamic exegesis) to the masses, and then basically there would be the equivilant of the reformation, except it would happen only within 12'r shiism. thered be those that stuck with the ayatollahs and then thered be a shitload of poor clerics without any higher education goin around preachin about whatever the hell they want pretty much. but all this unrest isnt about overthrowing the ayatollahs. hardly anyone in iran wants to bring down the islamic republic, they are all just tired of ahmadinejad basically
on the one hand though its difficult to estimate the relative level of piety of the iranian nation as a whole, but in general they are more religiously conservative (and traditional) than we are here in the united states, but they are prone to unpredictability when novel situations arise (as any multi-ethnic nation is certainly). but its hard to say that the problem in iran is that their religion and their state are closely tied together. the whole idea of the islamic republic is a pretty solid one, it just got quickly bastardized and authortarian heh
but yeah I personally wouldnt want to live in a theocracy lol
basically what I want to say is that the islamic republic was what the people needed in the 70s, they wanted a regime change, and at least originally, the new government that they ended up with represented their values and desires and fulfilled their hopes, but then shit just went back to not really being any different other than that the line of persian kings was finally broken for good. so its hard for me to bash the islamic republic, even though it seems so evil and terrible to people who arent as familiar with iran, because it perfectly suited what the people were after at the time, and who am I to judge that you know? What I do know is that the system is no longer working and something else needs to be tried, and in general there needs to be better and less corrupt leadership across the board
-
"as any multi-ethnic nation is certainly"
what
I get everything but this. What nation in this day and age isn't multi-ethnic?
What I do know is that the system is no longer working and something else needs to be tried, and in general there needs to be better and less corrupt leadership across the board
yes, hell yes. But thats what everyone says about everything and until you've got the reigns in your hands words don't mean shit.
Edit: I do not know why I just posted that, the last part.
I'm leaving it anyways I think it looks nice.
-
so earlier today there was a big rally where ahmadinejads supporters poured into the streets and marched up valiasr to vanak and azadi squares and demonstrated and he gave a speech and they got all excited and then I'm not really sure what happened but the latest news that I got is that several university students have been killed (by whom I have no idea)
and after reading the news non stop for the last couple hours I do have to say god damn I wonder what its like for foreigners to try to read our newspapers. its probably an absolute headache
-
BUMP apparently big shit is supposed to go down today in Iran.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
-
The street might be paved with blood soon if nether one backs down. The grand finally is upon Iran and if this dose go down it will surely will trun some heads and it will Set forth a movement into motion be it good or bad I can't tell. As all eyes are now on Iran.
I hope USA stay out of this dispute but Obama say’s he has no intentions on doing anything bout this.
Witch is better off this way besides we got enough problems of are own.
-
I hope to God no one interferes with this, especially my good ol' U S of A. Let's say the douchebag stays in power. The world is no worse off than it was yesterday. I really feel for the protesters out there, but meddling on any nation's part is just going to bite them in the ass down the road.
-
ay carumba. shows the iranian police attacking the crowd of protesters earlier today.
-
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/19/zakaria.iran.elections/index.html
pretty good interview with Fareed Zakaria on Iran
-
Completely unimportant, but Ron Paul was the only one in the house to vote against a resolution condemning Iran's crackdown and suppression of the media.
In less amusing news, a 16 year old girl was shot in Tehran yesterday: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/06/iran--2.html
-
Completely unimportant, but Ron Paul was the only one in the house to vote against a resolution condemning Iran's crackdown and suppression of the media.
that guy votes no on everything.
regardless, any statement by the united states government on the elections of any country, especially Iran, is p. meaningless all things considered.
"how dare they not have free and fair elections" *gladhands the saudi royal family and bombs the shit out of every country that steps out of line*
-
the united states has a habit of only giving a shit about "free and fair elections" if they turn out the way we want them to.
-
as well as supporting coups/overthrows and outright murdering the civilian populace with wars of aggression when they don't
i really hope that the Iranian resistance turns into a radical revolutionary movement to get rid of those disgusting mullahs, but I dunno, with the amount of dirty shit that the US has been doing in Iran for the last few decades I wouldn't be surprised one bit if this uprising gets co-opted into some sort of plan to destabilize the country.
-
all I know is fuck them ridiculous vigilante assholes on motorbikes, they all need to be cooperatively hunting those motherfuckers down and kicking their asses atleast I'm sure any self respecting person serving as a riot cop could come to that much as well.
or not...
-
regardless, any statement by the united states government on the elections of any country, especially Iran, is p. meaningless all things considered.
I think it's actually as funny as it is disturbing. The resolution is just business as usual. A miniscule and insignificant exercise of "political pressure" that means more to the politicians' PR than to the situation. So no matter if you vote for or against it, you're still using the situation as a means of profiling yourself.
Also, I must say I really did not expect the protests to become so significant as they have. The videos that are being posted every day are astonishing, even if I still think they're not going to have it their way.
Has anybody else seen the video of Neda? (VERY GRAPHIC. Here (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html), at 10:27 AM ET, or on YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjQxq5N--Kc) here.) This is really the most horrifying thing I've ever seen.
-
I nearly cried watching that honestly
-
i've heard about that, but i'm too scared to watch it
-
there's some really amazing nonviolent footage coming out now.
http://www.freehumans.org/
almost all the clips on here. the top video in particular shows HOW MANY iranians are taking to the streets. i've never seen anything like it.
-
almost all the clips on here. the top video in particular shows HOW MANY iranians are taking to the streets. i've never seen anything like it.
HuffPost (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html) at 10:50 AM ET also shows an amazing crowd (here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv9SWjFh0go) on YT).
-
what happens in this neda video?
-
she bleeds to death
-
what happens in this neda video?
The footage shows the girl, with a singe bullet wound in her chest, lying on her back as her family tries to unsuccessful save her. Blood is first seen leaving her chest, and later flowing from her mouth and nose as her face is eventually left covered in blood. 2 minutes later she was pronounced dead.
this was one of those rare moments when ron paul was actually correct.
I don't exactly agree with that, although I also think it's a very difficult issue and both sides have a good point. Ultimately, though, representative Ron Paul's words do not carry the same weight as president Obama's and are not very likely to pose a similar risk. It's not unlikely for parliaments of countries to be more candid about these things than cabinets.
I don't even think the resolution was all that ambitious. Obama himself also said he was "troubled" by the violance in Tehran (of which there is, even now, plenty of evidence). Other than the fact this resolution's text does not need to be as prudent as the president's words, I don't see how it would be that much different.
(In any case, I haven't actually read the text of the resolution, so I hope I'm not making any stupid presumptions in saying this.)
-
I think it's actually as funny as it is disturbing. The resolution is just business as usual. A miniscule and insignificant exercise of "political pressure" that means more to the politicians' PR than to the situation. So no matter if you vote for or against it, you're still using the situation as a means of profiling yourself.
It's not so much the insignificance of it which renders it meaningless, it's the whole history that the US has had with Iran that makes the whole thing a pretty infuriating sick joke.
-
Iranian guardian council admits there are irregularities in the votes
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/6/22/after_a_day_of_deadly_protests
-
yeah except they dont give a shit and followed up this announcement by stating that the irregularities they found (in 50 cities more people voted than eligible to vote) weren't enough to swing the election in any manner
-
I dont know what they're saying in the western media or on aljazeera even but the death toll is now in the hundreds and thousands have been arrested or detained unlawfully
the basiji are fuckin all over the place on motorcycles and riot police have been using live rounds to disperse crowds since friday so yeah its getting uglier
gooya has been so fucking gory the last couple days christ
-
that sucks to hear. are civilians legally armed in iran or no?
-
I honestly dont know, but I wouldnt be surprised one way or the other
the other issue with that is, even if it is illegal to own firearms or other weapons people probably still own them en masse anyways
it also doesnt really matter because the protestors and such (the word the news keeps using means demonstrators, protestors and opposition(ers) all at once) are trying their damndest to have peaceful protests in the first place but its kinda hard when you're gettin fired at with water cannons, tear gas, and rubber/wood/live rounds. dont expect civilians to try an armed insurrection (or even carrying arms to protect themselves) just yet. they are still working within the framework of the islamic republic, so as a movement they want to maintain as much legitimacy as they can until there is a final ruling on the election (which there pretty much already has been, but mousavi and karroubi are far from giving up). they will only resort to violence themselves once far more serious lines have been crossed on the part of the police, the army and the militia. the situation isnt there yet, but its coming if shit stays the same way it was this weekend
also: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/17/743478/-Ahmadinejad-Rally-Photoshopped-to-Appear-Larger lol
-
this has been complete crazy shit. makes me wonder what i would do or how far i would go in a similar situation.
-
well if you were iranian you'd always have that whole shia martyrdom obsession goin for you
I can only imagine the high those people must get from gettin the shit beat out of them by the riot police ALLAHU AKBAR EFTEKHAR O JELAALAMMMM
-
Yea, this group is unlikely to begin a full scale revolution. In effect, the current protests seem to be more symptoms of a power struggle within the Islamic Republic itself rather than an expression of revolutionary feelings. That being said, there are other groups in Iran that have those capabilities, but I don't think the results would be too favorable for Iran. Although, I do not know how the situation has changed since the election, as I have been cutoff from my sources of information. (feel kind of helpless)
-
yeah I dont see the protestors doing much other than getting killed honestly
cause right now whats goin on is mousavi is like 'elections were bullshit, we're gonna protest till you (guardian council) fix the problem' and khameni is like 'ahmadinejad won I'm gonna swear him in' and rafsanjani is like 'oh no you didnt bitch, I'm goin to qom to get all the other ayatollahs in a tizzy' and larijani is all over the place though its hard to say what exactly hes doin but yeah there is a serious shakeup goin on inside the actual functioning body of the islamic republic and ahmadinejad basically has his hands tied cause he doesnt actually have any power (whoops lol)
the only way a full scale revolution would start is if the protests swell and the military and the militias decide to exclusively use lethal force to contain the protests, and then you will see the exact same thing that happened in 1979. all the soldiers and militiamen will say fuck this I'm not going to slaughter my countrymen and they'll lay down their weapons and join the opposition. I think thats a ways off yet though. people forget that the islamic revolution started in 1978 and didnt finish until 1981. its a blunt and rather heartless way of putting it, but a lot more people have to die before there will be a regime change
-
I love your reports WC, keep them coming. I take it you're translating Iranian news sources?
I was surprised when Ali Khamenei backed Ahmadinejad completely and people still went on like nothing, the rallies got only bigger. I thought the supreme leader was a big enough authority to at least cool people down a little. What's up with this?
-
wash cycle you should post some sources man because i havent heard anything about a death toll in the hundreds and if thats true that paints a significantly different picture from what i have been told
so yeah dude where you gettin this shit
-
uh, wc's the ayatollah guys
-
I love your reports WC, keep them coming. I take it you're translating Iranian news sources?
I was surprised when Ali Khamenei backed Ahmadinejad completely and people still went on like nothing, the rallies got only bigger. I thought the supreme leader was a big enough authority to at least cool people down a little. What's up with this?
yeah directly from iranian news
theres a news collective called 'gooya' which means 'saying' or 'speaking' (both nouns) and they are basically like google news but in persian, they take all the most important stories from the various news outlets in persian and put them all in one ticker and I just read them in my free time
but yeah the reason people didnt listen to khameni is cause they know the whole election was a sham and they dont really give a damn what he has to say because they know he no longer stands for the people, but instead for his own interests
-
its become rather tedious in the last couple days translating this stuff though cause its really starting to get repetitive
karroubi/mousavi makes a speech saying "down with tyranny, stand up for your rights, protest peacefully, re-examine the election, take into consideration the irregularities'
ahmadinejad says nothing
khameni says 'reformists do not have any legal right to be protesting the way they are, they are in direct defiance of the islamic republic and should be punished'
a shitload of journalists get arrested
a bunch of people get killed
riots are ongoing
the (fill in ethnic group) are attempting a general strike (last week it was the Lurs, this week its the Kurds)
the only thing right now thats really up in the air in my opinion is whats goin on with Rafsanjani and Larijani, they seem to be the only ones capable of really pulling any strings for the reformists and they have been fairly tightlipped about what they've been up to, though they have been making frequent visits to esfahan and qom to meet with senior clerics and other officials so I dunno. it remains to be seen what will go down from here, but one things for certain, the iranian people wont put up with needless bloodshed for too long before they are spurred into action
-
I'm really curious to see if it'll turn into a full fledged revolution. But it's really too bad that there's needless bloodshed.
-
For freedom blood will always need to be spilled. Too bad the protest are cooling down and when they do start the riot police just disbanded before it starts.
-
Fuck no, why should blood be spilled because somebody automatically granted authority over a fuckload of people and decided to oppress them for one reason or another? If anything, the only blood that should be spilled here is either Ahmadinejad's and/or Khameni's(preferably Khameni's since he is behind this entire authoritarian system).
-
wow that post is not only self refuting, it is also pretty hateful and retarded
-
nah fuck them their heads should be on pikes in the town square
-
yeah if it wasnt already obvious it is clear now that khameni is a corrupt tyrannical motherfucker and it doesnt really matter who the president is in iran because khameni will bend them over backwards and assfuck them until they literally act as a vocal piece for the announcement and implementation his more controversial policies that hed rather not have associated directly with himself
in other words hes a pig but I'm gonna leave it at that because I'm not an expert on political science and I cant really comment on how he has perverted the mechanisms of the islamic republic in any too specific way
oh also heres a sweet news story
http://thesportsbizblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/protesting-iranian-soccer-players.html
captain of team melli banned for life, I dont think thats gonna go over well
-
yep this is gonna snowball
it looks like they just don't care at this point and are doing purposefully retarded shit left and right
-
well I dont know, the situation is still very murky
for instance, Mousavi and Karroubi called for a big protest outside of the Majles today and it didnt happen because the riotpolice were so successful in dispersing the demonstrators and as far as I can tell there were actually no deaths today, though the insane amount of arrests has continued. so if the police and the army succesfully manage to keep large groups of people from forming without killing people, the opposition is going to have a hard time getting anything done heh
and also I'm not sure whats going down yet but Mousavi openly criticized Rafsanjani and Larijani in parliament today, but I couldnt really tell what about exactly, fuckin islamic republic newspeak is impossibly dense and full of archaic terms that arent in my dictionary
-
I have actually been quite surprised at the restraint shown by the government. Granted, the news has been somewhat difficult to interpret, but interesting nonetheless. (somewhat reminiscent of the Shah's reaction to mass protests, of course with a completely different military situation) Does it imply that Khameni (and his supporters) believe that the protesters are a threat, or just the opposite? Furthermore it most assuredly means that there has been a great deal of dealing behind the scenes. (in other words, everything has not been just decided, like Khameni wants everyone to believe) In my view, the protests are somewhat insignifigant. (from an immediate political perspective) What I really want to know is Rafsanjani's angle, since he appears to be the key man in all of this.
-
well I'm not all too surprised by the governments actions to be honest, they are all either children or builders of the islamic revolution and especially for the current ones in charge, I'm sure the lessons of that upheaval have not been forgotten. this is why you have not seen anything that could be considered a massacre yet. I'm pretty sure that Khameni only sees the protestors as a threat in that they are just a nuisance and that they will have to be dealt with carefully but in his perfect scenario I'm sure hed put the opposition down ruthlessly, but since theres you know foreign pressure and the current diplomatic stance that iran currently has found itself in to be taken into account and of course the unpredictable nature of the backlash to that sort of thing as well. so I'd say he probably doesnt find much of a threat in large organized but peaceful demonstrations, but I'd say they certainly aggravate him and represent a kind of stumbling block. however he doesnt want the protests to become too large or become violent certainly, because then it would be impossible not to have to deal with them heavy handedly
but yeah, I dont think anyone other than rafsanjani and the people hes been talking to know much at all about what hes been up to.
its also worth mentioning I think that it doesnt seem that the people in Iran outside the cities have much of an idea whats going on at all really. It seems that outside of Tehran, Mashhad, Tabriz and Esfahan (the major centers of unrest) the focal point of demonstrations are at universities, which tend to be concentrated in the cities, and so there hasnt been much of anything going on in the countryside other than maybe people going to the cities, but given the news blackout and all the restrictions on satellite tv and the internet, I'd imagine that even the people in the cities dont know whats going on in other cities for the most part, so the whole situation is really all over the place because theres a real bottleneck on communication. however, those who do have internet access, which seems to be a shitload of people in tehran still, they know whats up and thats how we get all those videos on youtube and all the twitter and shit obviously, but its interesting to note that more or less all the videos and tweets and other info we're getting here in the west is coming almost exclusively from tehran heh
so who knows... but I will say this, today was a very quiet day as far as demonstrations are concerned. each day brings a new twist though, so maybe what happened in the majles today will come to light tomorrow I have no idea lol
-
I listened to a brief interview on NPR with a woman from Iran today, and it sounded like they were utilizing a lot more forces to disband would-be demonstrations. Which is not to say that they've been using more extreme methods of force than they have been.
I think that the killings and large number of arrests in conjunction with the increased level of police activity have been effective in preventing the protestors from congregating en masse like they have been. The video that somebody posted where the riot police were outmaneuvered by the protestors seems like something not likely to happen in the near future.
In regards to communication, I heard a bit about how even through social networking sites and the like, that the anonymity involved has raised concerns about the legitmacy of the information they receive. The young woman specifically mentioned how a message from Mousavi suggesting to stay indoors, as a new approach is strategized, could be questionable, and that its truth is difficult to discern.
Basically, it sounds as if all of Khameni's strategies have been working to quell the uprising. It will be interesting to see how things pan out in the next few days.
In my opinion, I believe the fervor has subsided because those involved in the demonstrations are uncertain of the specific result they hope to achieve. I mean, liberation from a corrupt government is obviously one of those goals, but it is a farsighted one that necessitates actions beyond demonstration. With somebody like Mousavi, wishing for the power he "legitamately" deserves (a very far-cry from happening) leading this ordeal, one has to begin questioning the efficacy of their approach.
-
You could argue that the protesters themselves lack direction and specific goals, (its a rather sizable chunk of the "urban" population, one would expect diffuse and vague views from such a large group) but the leaders behind the scenes seem to be aiming for more subtle results. Many of the leaders are powerful men in their own right and have their own bases to challenge Khameni from. Rafsanjani in particular is very wealthy, very well connected, and has a lot at stake, although I assume his immediate goals are to be found in unspoken arrangements. (Mousavi is harder to gauge, but in many ways less important to the current situation, at least in my own, somewhat clouded, view)
-
hooooooooooooooooly shit.... this mornings headline:
میرحسین موسوی در حبس خانگی است
"Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest"
lots of news stories flashing through when I got up this morning, and judging by the content of their headlines and meta-tags today is going to be a crazy day lol
-
Yea thats pretty crazy, but not totally unexpected. Mousavi has put himself out there and I would not be surprised if he is sacrificed in the making of a deal. (of course, he could be "rehabilitated" or he could be being held "hostage," either way, the protesters will not be consulted in any meaningful way)
-
Yea thats pretty crazy, but not totally unexpected. Mousavi has put himself out there and I would not be surprised if he is sacrificed in the making of a deal. (of course, he could be "rehabilitated" or he could be being held "hostage," either way, the protesters will not be consulted in any meaningful way)
the official reason given is that 'its for his protection' and hes still giving statements, today he released his 7th manifesto or declaration or whatever you want to call them
but you raise an interesting point on the motives for such action, and it is entirely possible that it is part of a secret deal that hasnt come to light yet heh. I'm about to start actually reading the articles (I dont translate anything too big until I've had breakfast and a joint otherwise I get a headache real bad lol)
-
Yea, I'm not going to translate anything like that today. It just depresses me. (its a lot of work, just to get depressed) If I want to translate something I will stick to Bal'ami or Sa'di or something like that. (at least for today)
-
ah
فارسی بلد هستید؟
also russia has cut off its support of irans nuclear power plant saying that 'the security situation and amount of civil political unrest in iran is not favourable to the construction/establishment of a nuclear power program and we are withdrawing our support until the situation stabilizes'
-
.کمی بلد باشم. حتما فارسیم از عربیم بهتر است
Yea thats kind of interesting, (could easily get much more interesting in the coming weeks) but it's probably just some more political maneuvering. Everyone is always trying to get some sort of advantage, especially if there are going to be some realignments in the Islamic Republic.
-
yeah, one thing I find rather disconcerting actually is that ahmadinejad has been criticizing obama, telling him not to meddle in irans affairs and saying that if he continues making statements like those that he has been making, the people in iran will see him no differently than bush. I get a couple things out of this: 1) ahmadinejad is off his rocker, 2) he knows something I dont, 3) the cia is more involved than anyone is letting on
of those, the most likely is the first lol because obama has actually handled the situation very well in my opinion other than the comment that mousavi and ahmadinejad aren't too dissimilar but yeah, minor shit. I think Ahmadinejad is reacting to obama's comments on the violent supression of protests that happened last week, but honestly I like Obamas approach so far, the distance he is keeping is appropriate
از کجا فارسی را یاد گرفتید؟
معمولا من ایرانی نیستم اما برای سالی در دانشگاه ایالت اوهایو فارسی را خوانده ام
-
In general, I like the way Obama has handled the situation. But, the American presidency has been avenue of easy and pretty much free support for Ahmedinezhad he cannot turn away from it now, just because the president has changed, heh. Moreover, the CIA is probably involved at some level and even if they aren’t it would be extremely easy to convince most people that they are; for Ahmedinezhad’s purposes, that perception is more important.
.به دانشگاۀ رتگرس و دانشگاۀ نیو جرسی وکمی دانشگاۀ پرینستن درس خوانده ام
(it was a weird inter-university program that turned out to be awesome, yea I very much considered Ohio State for grad school, but it fell through on the money end of things and now I’m headed to the University of Chicago)
-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEoENGm-DSs
Another well-publicized video of someone getting capped. Shit makes me sick, you can see the dude's eyes bugging out of his head. This shit pisses me off to no end, I can't imagine the emotions flaring through Iran's protesters. I'd like to say if I was there, I'd be trading shots with the assholes on motorbikes and any other violent opposition. But it's a scary situation, and hard to say what any of us would do there.
-
things are getting interesting again
today huge numbers of people poured into the streets after the guardian council issued its final ruling on the election, they claim ahmadinejad won obviously and the demonstrations and protests are starting up in earnest again
-
fuck yes I thought they gave up
-
Awesome!
Hopefully the momentum doesn't cease.
-
So I dunno if any of you guys follow this thing on Twitter but I have been for the past couple of weeks. If you haven't been following but you have the resources, please consider setting up proxy servers to help combat the government's attempt to regulate internet usage.
I've also set up a log of websites that are openly trying to expose the identities of protesters. There are a lot of these floating around out there and word is the Iranian government is using them as a resource to pinpoint protesters and detain/torture/kill them.
WhoIs Log of Attack sites (http://iranelection.godlessfellowship.com/whois)
Message Board set up by Anonymous (http://iran.whyweprotest.net)
Here's (http://shahabnews.com/vdccxoqs.2bq0o8laa2.html) an example of one of the attack sites and a crude translation of the text on the page:
Disturbances and riots in the foundation that recently launch by disruptive elements is organized crime study center of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards called on the perpetrators and sedition should introduce insecurity.
This site reported, quoting the vortex (gerdab.ir) as is:
Unfortunately, this holiday Vhdtman enemy sign is gone and the control effort and maximum destructive hypocrites, monarchists and counter-revolutionary and terrorist groups in cyberspace and the media are nothing but disrupt the country social security and not for any other purpose to achieve this aim to get every weapon, even a terrorist strike actions to create wealth and lives of discontent and disarray use.
Therefore, all users hereby and Iranian families are expected if the personal data of any of the following photos and any news and information including photos, films, articles, news, email, web address, or complaints about the flow of disturbance of trade and demand of each group in cyberspace actions are destructive to stimulate activity through the site should have a purse to review information center organized Jzaym ordered.
See the photos in original size on they click.
There's a hosting company in Oakland, California called OnlineNIC.com that is hosting a couple of these. If you're feeling froggy, check out the WhoIs log for contact infos and give these people a shout about it.
-
lol I'm already on enough fbi and cia lists as it is for taking farsi in the first place
but yeah, for those of you looking to get better coverage of iran than what is given in the western media, here are two websites in english you can check out to get translations of statements and speeches by mousavi, karroubi, ahmadinejad, khameni etc as well as all kinds of news and commentary as well
http://tehranbureau.com/
http://niacblog.wordpress.com/
-
any updates on this stuff? i'm trying to watch the news but it's wall-to-wall michael jackson still. it seems like they've dropped this story altogether even though it's obviously important!
-
yeah check out those links I posted above and read al-jazeera
-
al jazeera? heh.. like im gonna read a terror monkeys site
-
yeah, they're better than uh lets see every major news source produced in america anyway
-
where do you live, wash cycle? from this topic, i'd say not in iran, but in the proximity.
-
ohio im pretty sure
-
haha yeah.. I just have access to the internet and my persian professor is very well connected in iran and through him and a friend of mine who translates the news for a special wire service translating company I get access to first hand sources and the news as its happening
I mean half the sites I go to would be worthless to you guys cause they're in persian so yeah, but you will hear about these sometimes on CNN or whatever when they're like 'according to Ghalam/Tabenak/Ilnah/Gooya/IRIB/Mehr/Sarmayeh/Amir Kabir/Radio Farda/Kayhan/whatever' all these are newspapers/websites/wire services coming out of iran and I just read them in my spare time (which cause I'm only working part time is a lot of time)
good sites to use to see what the fucks up in english:
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/latest-updates-on-iran-election-protests/
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-protest10-2009jul10,0,622206.story
http://niacblog.wordpress.com/
http://tehranbureau.com/
tehran bureau especially is excellent, because not only do they present the news but they also have high quality analysis and discussion of events, wheras the others are more liveblog kind of style, but on days like today they are so much better because you get up to the minute reports of whats going on straight from the horses mouth a lot of the time
speaking of today, today was crazy. thousands of demonstrators, shitload of allaho akbars and ya hossein mir hossein and marg bar khameni and marg bar diktator (but no marg bar amrika lol) bunch of people gettin the shit beat out of them by basijis and plainclothes cops, some deaths probably, but most of the dead arent making it to hospitals, they are just disappearing (militiamen and police carrying them off the streets to locations unknown) so its really difficult to get an accurate count of the dead, but more than likely todays count was less than 10. bunch of cars got lit on fire though and all of tehran was an absolute clusterfuck from noon till sunset
but yeah one interesting thing going down that they may or may not have reported in the western media, but the city of qom is practically under martial law. there are police patrolling the streets 24/7 and all the higher level clerics are being 'guarded' by police and the army (they're more than likely being watched rather than guarded).
as far as looking at the big picture of all this goes, some people say all this action over the last 5 years amounts to a takeover of the islamic republic by militant factions within the establishment, but these people are dumb and dont know their history because the islamic republic was taken over by military elements when the iran-iraq war started in the 80s. but what you are seeing is a huuuuuge rift in the clerical establishment and what I think is going on is that rafsanjani is just trying to get the entire assembly of experts on his side so he can depose khameni.
While this would be a step in a positive direction in my opinion, dont forget that while rafsanjani is certainly more liberal and would probably give the people of iran the liberties that they are crying out for, he is also the richest man in iran and very much in favor of free trade and a neoliberal trade regimen (do not forget... what do you think the Iran-CONTRA scandal was all about (it was rafsanjani buyin a bunch of illegal shit)) so while he is better than khameni, he is no hero. neither is mousavi but thats a different story.
obviously I am simplifying here but yeah baked posting
-
yeah wasn't mousavi tied to getting a bunch of people killed or something like that?
-
yeah wasn't mousavi tied to getting a bunch of people killed or something like that?
What kind of political leader would he be if he wasn't?
Remember, there has never been very much unity among the clerical elites. As the ideologies of the 79 revolution worked themselves out (and to a certain extent this is a continuing process) there was almost constant infighting. Khomeini had to fight, kill, and strangely have demoted several prominent clerics before his position really solidified itself. Khomeini was advocating a rather radical departure from the traditional values of Qom and Najaf and many of the clerics that eventually joined him, did so reluctantly. Then again the ideological aspects of the revolution could be seen as a clerical response to their weakening role in society. In other words, it's very possible that their role will soon be relegated to background. Cannot say whether any of this is good or bad at the moment...
By the way Washcycle, was Dr. Pourshariati still on sabbatical through the spring semester? If you still haven't met her, you should get to know her. I don't know what kind of teacher she is, but she has an absolutely brilliant mind.
-
I have not had the opportunity to meet professor pourshariati unfortunately, as she has been on sabbatical since I started at ohio state, but since she is basically one of 3 senior faculty in the persian department at osu I will certainly be meeting her this year, as I am the only person at osu actually majoring in persian so yeah haha. I believe I will be taking 'History of Iran' with her winter quarter though. howd you meet her?
while I agree with you teron, I think one thing that is currently uniting a lot of the qom clerics is their opposition to khameni/ahmadinejad. I dont know what they stand to gain by throwing their lot in with the likes of rafsanjani, but maybe they are more pragmatic than I ever gave them credit for lol
-
She wrote a fascinating book on the Sassanian/conquest periods. (I originally looked her up because she was a student of Richard Bulliet, who I am very much fond of) While I don't agree with everything she says in it, over the course of 500 pages she makes hundreds of compelling arguments. Almost every page made me stand up and reassess the whole situation. (literally stand up, took me forever to finish the book heh) I've never had an intellectual experience like that and if I had ended up at OSU's grad program she would have been a big part of it. But yea, I met her when she spoke at my old school and she was a huge help to me in orienting myself for the grad school application process. (which is really no fun by the way)
-
how was getting into the university of chicago btw? cause the most marketable of my interests is in economics and given my persian skills, interest in linguistics and archaeology plus chicago = amazing potential resources for research and funding. only problem is I kinda stand against the chicago school on everything lol. I'm considering getting in contact with the agha khan culture initiative while I'm in tajikistan and seeing if I can work for them for a while and see if they'll pay for a grad degree for me but who knows, I have so many fucking options open to me. luckily for me, farsi speakers and specialists on central asia are in high demand and that need isnt going to be diminished any time soon. I've just gotta deal with next school year, an entire year abroad and then a quarter after that and I am done with my bachelors
but yeah right now for grad school I am considering chicago, u of michigan, uc berkeley and university of hawaii (this is if I decide to get really baked and be an ethnomusicologist lol). chicago sounds like a bitch to get into and hella expensive though, whats your experience been with it so far?
-
Yea its been an interesting experience, but Chicago looks like its going to be perfect for me. I'm very interested (obsessed maybe? depends on who you ask) in the early Islamic period through to the tenth century. So there aren't many places in America that offer much in the way of organized programs on that subject. But Chicago has Fred Donner and a number of other people in their NELC and History departments. But yea, I don't plan on getting involved in their economics department, but as far as history goes their politics suit me fine. (not so much in the economics..) But yea if you want to talk more about the grad school process just pm me your aim or whatever.
-
u guys and ur fertile crescents lol
-
wash cycle being the mid east expert that you are im curious how you feel about the increased american presence in afghanistan.. to me it seems a better situation then iraq with no leaders to depose and whatnot but still im not sure how i feel about american military intervention anywhere at this point cuz ya know WHEN CHICKENS COME TO ROOST
obviously im being pretty vague on how i feel about the subject but uh i just remember that article you wrote about afghanistan and how much it rocked so yea id like to know your opinion and i didnt really wanna make a whole topic for it ya know
-
we're displacing hundreds and hundreds of people over there with Pakistani f-16s and US drones and killing innocent poppy farmers left and right. Pakistanis don't want us there because we're actually increasing the Taliban by displacing so many people, blowing their only sources of income up and leaving them with no alternative between starvation and joining the Taliban.
-
Well more troops are technically a good thing, but they won't lead to any sort of lasting gains if the whole strategy doesn't change. The government in Kabul has extremely limited resources and no real military. The various military groups that do exist within Afghanistan are lead by the same people who were in power in 1993. They are the same exact people (with a couple omissions) who misgoverned the region so poorly that they made the Taleban seem reasonable and just. Essentially the grand strategy in Afghanistan has been an absolute disaster and Najibullah's government has basically been recreated. This is very nearly as bad as Taleban rule.
I guess the best one can hope for is economic stabalization with an increased troop presence, but with the situation across the border in Pakistan, I do not know how that would work.
By the way, as far as leaders to depose, the Afghan situation is much worse than Iraq. Afghanistan had/has no real centralized government. Even under Daoud Khan's reign much of the state apparatus was illusionary. What it does have now are a number of "warlords." The United States refused to depose these individuals (many of whom, had been supported by US/Pakistani/Saudi/Chinese aid in the past) and thus they continue to rule. Their rule is symbolically and physically associated with the break down and fragmentation of the country and the creation of the mind blowing level of human suffering that have existed in the region for decades.
-
I think its too early to tell if our increase in troop levels will actually do any good, I think on the whole we need to move into a new phase of approach to Afghanistan and by that I mean we need to start nation building and as soon as possible. However, you cant build the apparatuses of states, nor roads, hospitals, schools or public works projects unless the country is stable and the situation under control. I mean I sound like some burgeouis technocrat in saying so, but afghanistan has seen nearly continual warfare since the 70s and the country was hardly modernized to begin with. Afghanistan has a long way to go before the situation improves, and I hope that between the US stepping up troop levels and the Pakistani army cracking down on the Taleban in the frontier provinces that security wont be as much of an issue, but the rivalry between Pashtun and non-Pashtun Afghans is probably never going away so its going to be interesting to see if a stable nation-state will ever actually come to fruition in the region.
in the end, afghanistan has a shitload of strikes against it, economically it has been ravaged, the country has very limited arable land, a huge internal refugee population, inter-ethnic strife, its not modernized, anywhere from 5-20% of its territory is covered in mines depending on who you ask, and its currently run by what amounts to a bunch of corrupt mafiosos with large standing militias and lots of weaponry so the whole thing is just like a big clusterfuck of an example of what happens when sphere of influence conflicts never get resolved.
-
I called it
the 40 day mark after the death of Neda has sparked protests and demonstrations as well as crackdowns and arrests
http://pakshha.wordpress.com/2009/07/30/breaking-news-protests-around-mosala-square-in-tehran/
http://niacblog.wordpress.com/
the government is well aware of the incredible importance of these large public mourning ceremonies and their role in bringing down the shah during the revolution so it should be interesting to see how they handle this, cause its going to keep happening for another couple of months given that people are still dying like every day in the prisons now