Topic: U.S. Economy Faltering; Is a recession or a depression ahead? (Read 15727 times)

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Also I don't see why we don't have a system where everyone just pays X% of their income in taxes. I don't see how anyone could complain that way.
Uh, you don't see how people might complain when they are in the middle class yet their taxes go up while the people who can most afford to pay taxes get reduced taxes?
edit: and I don't mean some Steel bandwagonning puppetmaster shit, what you typed is seriously seriously flawed.
Thats fine if it is but you definitely still mean that, you just admitted you were trying to get the rest of GW to debate me, I don't see how that is not bandwagoning.
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People will complain no matter what you do, but I guess what I really mean is that seems most fair.

Edit: My only economic knowledge comes from a paper I did on Keynes, so you know...
Last Edit: January 22, 2008, 03:41:30 am by Von Woofen
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Also I don't see why we don't have a system where everyone just pays X% of their income in taxes. I don't see how anyone could complain that way.

how much is 10% of a low income family?
how much is 10% of Paris Hilton's family?

which will have the most difficulty making rent if 10% is taxed right out of their sales, considering the poor buy more than the rich?
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which will have the most difficulty making rent if 10% is taxed right out of their sales, considering the poor buy more than the rich?
I agree with your first statement but what. Do you mean that rich people buy less in proportion to their income or what because I was under the impression that middle class people do not buy 12 cars or mansions, or jets.
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Does this mean I'll be able to buy cheaper import things from USA?

I mean how can this affect my or anyone else's lives? What are the positive/negatives effects of this so called recession if it happens?

If you think this is not a honest question and are going to post "inri cheetos is a troll LOL" then please ignore this post, pretend it doesn't exist

it means i'm illegally immigrating to your more fortunate country and mugging your dumb ass.
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I agree with your first statement but what. Do you mean that rich people buy less in proportion to their income or what because I was under the impression that middle class people do not buy 12 cars or mansions, or jets.

the poor and middle class have always been the market. the rich might buy their exclusive overpriced shit but that does not pay any corporation's bills, other than a few that exclusively cater to the upper class (and they see very little in revenue compared to something mass marketed). since the poor are more likely to even buy shit that needs to be replaced (shitty cars on shitty cars idk insert w/e) they will end up getting more fucked by sales taxes than the rich. there's a graph in one of my links that showed this.
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Oh I get it now. I thought you meant per person in real dollars, but you were referring to the fact that the middle class accounts for more real dollars in the economy. Yeah I get you now.
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As a non american this is really great news for me, because I tend to order DVDs, CDs etc from there anyways (because it's so much cheaper even with shipping). Kinda sucks I ain't buying much toys anymore because the dollar:pound ratio is really good, and would save me a fortune.

No, it isn't.

When a major world power like the US is having its economy faltering, that is NEVER great news for anybody.

You know the Great Depression? When the USA fell into the slump, it pulled all the other countries into it since back then (and we still do) the USA trades with all these people etc.

We're all interconnected man, and I think it's kind of weird / horrible that there is a possibility of a fuckton of countries getting fucked over a bit by this and possibly another Great Depression-like deal happening and you just go GREAT NEWS CHEAP CDS FUCK YEAH!!
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No, it isn't.

When a major world power like the US is having its economy faltering, that is NEVER great news for anybody.

You know the Great Depression? When the USA fell into the slump, it pulled all the other countries into it since back then (and we still do) the USA trades with all these people etc.

We're all interconnected man, and I think it's kind of weird / horrible that there is a possibility of a fuckton of countries getting fucked over a bit by this and possibly another Great Depression-like deal happening and you just go GREAT NEWS CHEAP CDS FUCK YEAH!!

I agree completely.  The US is so intertwined with the world's economy, everyone will be fucked in some way. 

I am actually personally offended that you, kaworu would rejoice at my own misfortune, for the mere prospect of a few cheaper goods.  You do realize such a thing would entail millions of people, possibly my own family, going hungry and/or homeless?
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I agree completely.  The US is so intertwined with the world's economy, everyone will be fucked in some way. 

I am actually personally offended that you, kaworu would rejoice at my own misfortune, for the mere prospect of a few cheaper goods.  You do realize such a thing would entail millions of people, possibly my own family, going hungry and/or homeless?
but.... the dvds........
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We're not going to go into a Depression. I know, I know, never say never, but it's highly unlikely and considering we still haven't reached the recession stage I wouldn't jump that far in my thinking.
The market has reached a low point and the dollar's tanked, and while I am by no means saying "Everything's fine, la di da di da," I don't think things have sunk far enough that we can say we're in a recession, although the danger's certainly there. Remember, however, that it takes 9 months to realize that a recession has taken place. It's a bit premature to be talking about a recession at this point. Newspapers enjoy taking some facts and running with them, and things are not nearly as bad as the media says they are, although the market is taking something of a hit.
Also realize that a recession doesn't mean the end of the US as we know it or whatever. These things happen, and it's one of the costs of having a free market system. Sometimes the market is up, sometimes it's down. Right now it's down. One of the problems with the media is that when things are up they expect them to keep going up, and when they're down they expect them to keep going down. Consider that in the last six months we've had to deal with:
1) Subprime crisis
2) Falling dollar
3) Rising oil prices (and the corresponding rising gas prices)
4) Large write downs (mostly related to the subprime crisis in ways which I don't feel like explaining)
5) The federal funds rate, the federal discount rate and the discount window have all been dropped by the Federal Reserve.
Among other things.

Personally I think it may last long enough to start hitting some people's pocketbooks, but as far as crippling the economy or whatever, I doubt it. We have foreigners rushing in to buy large slices of failing American businesses, and that's a good sign that the market doesn't have that much further down to go. The main thing that happened which really screwed the market was that through a network of derivatives, indexes, collateralized debt obligations, ABXs, securitization of subprime mortgages and so on and so forth, almost every institutional portfolio had a larger than rational stake in securities tied one way or another to subprime loans. Hopefully the market will right itself in a few months and we can all laugh at the newspapers for doing what they do. Or not. In the end, the truth of the matter is that no one knows what's going to happen until it happens, and until then you have a bunch of economists interpreting the information in every way possible.

"If you laid all economists end to end, they would never reach a conclusion."
-George Bernard Shaw
Last Edit: January 22, 2008, 07:07:01 am by Zeratul

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tbh a depression isn't DESTINED to happen, Analysts are staying pretty steady on the mark and are claiming that this PANIC will look silly in 12 months time, infact predictions tend to show that it'll still even out better than a few years ago. Talks amongst Europe's financial ministers have them saying we can go through this with minimal loss. Perhaps the worst hit by these recession fears is Asia (it seems to be falling quicker than the US in places, like Japan, but they ain't exactly jumping out of windows yet so relax and wait things out), where stocks are  really falling. But luckily essentials such as oil and metal are finally falling in price (after a fairly steady increase in recent years) to counter this. Will it be enough to even out the global economy? maybe not but it'll surely lessen it's impact. Economies are pretty damn random, if a politician says one bad thing or lays out a not so good plan, their economy can tumble. George Bush laid out tax cuts... not enough... america fumbles, and everywhere starts panic buying for no reason. This won't be another "great depression", the global economy has changed so much since then.
All this worrying is making the situation worse, and it's what is fuelling the decline, panic.

And also yes people, I exactly meant you guys, I should have named that I want to see you poor and homeless specifically. It's what I enjoy, I can't help it that I personally want to see you and your families living on the street.
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tbh a depression isn't DESTINED to happen, Analysts are staying pretty steady on the mark and are claiming that this PANIC will look silly in 12 months time, infact predictions tend to show that it'll still even out better than a few years ago. Talks amongst Europe's financial ministers have them saying we can go through this with minimal loss. Perhaps the worst hit by these recession fears is Asia (it seems to be falling quicker than the US in places, like Japan, but they ain't exactly jumping out of windows yet so relax and wait things out), where stocks are  really falling. But luckily essentials such as oil and metal are finally falling in price (after a fairly steady increase in recent years) to counter this. Will it be enough to even out the global economy? maybe not but it'll surely lessen it's impact. Economies are pretty damn random, if a politician says one bad thing or lays out a not so good plan, their economy can tumble. George Bush laid out tax cuts... not enough... america fumbles, and everywhere starts panic buying for no reason. This won't be another "great depression", the global economy has changed so much since then.
All this worrying is making the situation worse, and it's what is fuelling the decline, panic.

And also yes people, I exactly meant you guys, I should have named that I want to see you poor and homeless specifically. It's what I enjoy, I can't help it that I personally want to see you and your families living on the street.


not worrying at all and taking advantage of the situation when it is a serious problem isn't the right thing to do either
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isn't it? I would think that people deciding to put money into the US economy is exactly what's needed (since it is because what really causes recession is when people decide to take their money OUT of the us economy).
Worrying causes you to panic and do crap that fails, it is these very situations where you cannot worry, you need a level head to think about what's needed.
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Some sick bastard told me that the best way for the US to get back on track would be a huge war and he hopes that a major US city gets bombed. When I tried to explain to him that that was insane he told me I was a pussy liberal and the world is alot harder than my deluded childhood upbringing has led me to believe.

I think we'll pull out of it soon. And maybe the upcoming elections mixed in with our growing economic difficulties will lead to some promising changes.

But I fucking love how WE NEED DEATHE 2 MAKE MONEYS STUPID YUNGUN makes more sense to some people than economic reform...
Last Edit: January 22, 2008, 10:58:23 am by Harry Manback
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QUICK!  Everybody panic!  Sell all your stock and cash out your bank accounts!

I think a shift to a different fuel source for transportation would help a lot.  The oil companies would never have it, but if a new fuel or energy source were to replace gasoline, and it was universally adopted -inexpensively- then the push to switch over would stimulate the economy.  People would need to buy cars, old cars would need to be disposed of, gas stations would need to be converted.  All this = transfer of currency = economic growth/activity.

If done correctly, it would crush the oil industry, creating a shift of economic power to the people.
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It would be so hard to build a new infrastructure for a new fuel source (other than say electricity from a plug in your garage or something) and keep it sustained until it can be effectively incorporated in the economy and can stand on its own. amirite? probably not.
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It would be so hard to build a new infrastructure for a new fuel source (other than say electricity from a plug in your garage or something) and keep it sustained until it can be effectively incorporated in the economy and can stand on its own. amirite? probably not.
It will be difficult, but at the current consumption rate we'll absolutely have to build new or modify the existing infrastructure in something like 50 years, when it is projected that we will officially be out of oil.

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We will not be out of oil in 50 years.  What will happen is that easily-extracted oil will be depleted, forcing us to look for more difficult (and more expensive) oil.  In fact, that is already happening (see Alberta Oil Sands project or the Bakken Oil field of North Dakota and Saskatchewan).

Anywho, the US and Canadian markets have recovered somewhat today, thanks to prime rate cuts.  They won't fix the economy, but they ease the burden.

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basically tax the fuck out of the rich imho because if you're still rich after taxes eat a dick.
Yeah, the ones that deserve to be taxes the most are the rich, of course. Taxing the poor more than the rich is kind of unthinkable in the Netherlands. As far as I know, no serious political party advocates this, not even the most right-wing ones.