I took a class on modern Russian politics!
I'm not too keen on Russia's situation as of late, but I ask this question to anyone who knows; is Russia really in a position to fuck with us right now? Seriously?
Well, it has considerable political clout and no one's going to be insane enough to open up an armed front against Russia in NATO. That is their only strength.
If you mean militarily, not even close. Even the land troops and air resources which aren't in Iraq would be several times more than strong enough to send their Ruskie asses packing. The Russian military was barely able to survive in Chechnya, how do you think they would fare against American hardware and equipment? If a carrier battle group was sent in, a single one would be enough to defeat them (though you'd obviously need many more troops if you wanted to invade Russia itself, but I'm assuming the aim here is to push them out of their fun little proxy republics and hostile zones.
The Russian military is operating on 20 year old or older equipment, low morale, and poor training and manpower levels. I'm surprised that the Russians even think this is a good idea considering what happened in Grozny. They have nukes, but I bet they'd never use those unless the US military did something incredibly stupid like
attempting to push its troops into the Russian homeland.
Fucking Russia... Who the hell is responsible for this? That Dmitry Medvedev guy?
Medvedev is a party hack Putin put in so that he could run things from behind the scenes, at least for a while. This smells like Putin's influence.
What's the status of US invervention in this whole fiasco? Does the USA plan on directly opposing the Russians, or was that earlier threat just a precautionary statement to the US?
I haven't read about it but I'm assuming that the USA is too stretched out and cares little enough about Georgia, a little bumfuck country that's biggest notability in the American mindset is being the enemy in 'Splinter Cell', to intervene. This is just a larger-scale Chechnya situation, the fact that it's foreign territory notwithstanding.
As far as Jeff's analysis about the oil oligarchs go, it's partially correct. Most of the oligarchs are not on great terms with Putin's old administration or the new one that's continuing his policies, but there are a few who are pretty cozy with them and who probably have their influence in these things (just like oil concerns definitely played a role in the invasion of Iraq) but I'm betting the main pressure is from hardliners allied with the Putin camp. The rest of his analysis is smart and really spot on!
Unfortunately, while Russian certainly coaxed Georgia into this war, they made it so that Georgia was the first to engage in conflict with South Ossetians with Russian passports. Georgia played the game badly on this one and should have expected Russia to send in troops once their pretext was laid. Now it's impossible to justify stepping in on either side which is incredibly unfortunate considering Saakashvili was starting to give the country a future again!
Way to go Russia!