what about Kaufman's new film?
the plot seems like a fucking trip
potential to win original screenplay or some other shit?
Yeah, Kaufman gets nominated for Screenplay a lot (3 nods, 1 win if I'm correct). It probably won't get anything else, but would probably boost PSH's chances to score a nomination with Doubt (oooh look he brought out not one but TWO cool films this year, let's nom him aka George Clooney 2005).
I'm not that fussed if TDK gets a nomination, but if it wins I just feel that the Oscars would lose a bit of face from it. I mean, the POPULAR MOVIE has won in the last two years, The Departed and No Country. Obviously No Country could be argued against, but I personally feel TWBB should've won it, but it's not important.
Well, Juno made the most money out of the 5 nominees last year. I don't know if that classifies it as most popular, though. I'm with No Country more than TWBB though they were both pretty impressive. With NCFOM more because I felt TWBB dragged at parts and felt a little too long, even though it's supposed to be a kind of 'epic' and all.
But then again, award shows

It's never really about the 'best' movie